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Are interest rates going down, again?
Tuesday, June 18, 2019  | 

The Fed will decide on its interest rate policy on Wednesday. The ECB's decision-makers will also meet in Sintra for the conference.

Very recently, both ECB and FED have hinted at a easing of monetary policy; the situation is particularly true for Europe where the expected rate of inflation is well below the historic average.

Meanwhile, US investors are already expecting interest rate cuts this year. The risk, however, is that such expectations could trigger a downward dynamic if they are not realized. Two years ago, the President of the European Central Bank had already caused fierce reactions on the markets with his speech in Sintra. So watch out for the comments in-between the lines.

Manufacturing PMI slips further in May
Tuesday, June 4, 2019  | 
The ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 52.1 in May (consensus: 53) from 52.8 in April, representing the lowest reading since October 2016. Respondent comments show concern about the prospect of higher tariffs on Chinese imports and delays at the border with Mexico. However, the comments also suggest that overall business conditions remain reasonably strong and the labor market remains tight. Our base case remains that a US-China trade compromise will be struck after a long and bumpy process and that a US recession in 2019 is unlikely.

Pick your poison
Monday, June 3, 2019  | 
For Fed, it's higher inflation or an inevitable return to quantitative easing

The current market correction creates a renewed entry point
Friday, May 24, 2019  | 

- Central banks have turned dovish, which is a key difference with last year. Keep in mind that the market correction last Fall was primarily caused by fears of a too hawkish Fed leading the US into recession.

- Smart money has viewed the rally with skepticism since the beginning of the year, hence a “flow-less” bull market.

- US productivity has been accelerating recently, so that unit labor costs have remained quite muted. This is good news for US corporates’ margins and EPS.

- The current tensions should not lead to a global economic recession, even though the level of business confidence is more depressed than in March last year when Trump initiated the trade war. The protectionist measures taken to date should cost around 0.5%-pt to China this year and next and around 0.2%-pt to the US. The environment remains tough for manufacturers but, albeit mixed, the latest data are still consistent with an orderly economic deceleration rather than with an outright recession.

Tuesday, February 3, 2015  | 

In interesting chart from PriceStat about inflation

PriceStats - Inflation?

The stock of the week - Fingerprint
Wednesday, September 4, 2013  | 

The stock of the week - Fingerprint

Presentation of ALPHEGA
Saturday, May 4, 2013  | 
The ALPHEGA algorithm will be presented at the IMA Conference on Mathematics in Finance on Monday March 08/09, 2013, at the Heriot-Watt University, Edinburgh.

Présentation ALPHEGA

Pour des informations supplémentaires :

Paper’s Abstract

Identifying leading stocks is crucial for investors. Fundamental and technical models have failed to create a definite advantage for the investor as they only consider one aspect of an investment. Econophysics principles however, are able to provide both signs of changing patterns and predict the direction of trends and can therefore assist with interpreting stock variations. 

Alphéga, is a sequential algorithm developed using econophysics principles that can be applied to crystallize investment themes and stock trends. True positive, true negative, false positive and false negative analyses are used to monitor large datasets, with the output being oscillations which either fade or grow. 

Our research suggests due to the update frequency, it is not the change in oscillations  which is important but rather their continuity. The results of this research will be put into context with empirical data. 
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